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J. DAVID HUGHES

A REALITY CHECK ON U.S. GOVERNMENT FORECASTSFOR A LASTING TIGHT OIL & SHALE GAS BOOM

DRILLING DEEPER

RILLING

EEPER

A Reality Check on U.S. Government Forecasts for a Lasting Tight Oil & Shale Gas Boom By J. David Hughes

Visit

postcarbon.org/drilling-deeper

for more information and related resources. About the Author

David Hughes is a geoscientist who has studied the energy resources of Canada for four decades, including 32 years with the Geological Survey of Canada as a scientist and research manager. He developed the National Coal Inventory to determine the

availability and environmental constraints associated with Canada’s coal resources. As Team Leader for

Unconventional Gas on the Canadian Gas Potential Committee, he coordinated the publication of a comprehensive

assessment of Canada’s

unconventional natural gas potential. Over the past decade, Hughes has researched, published, and lectured widely on global energy and sustainability issues in North America and internationally. In 2011, Hughes authored a series of papers on the production potential and environmental impacts of U.S. natural gas. In early 2013, he authored

Drill, Baby, Drill: Can Unconventional Fuels Usher in a New Era of Energy Abundance?

, which took a far-ranging and painstakingly researched look at the prospects for various unconventional fuels to provide energy abundance for the United States in the 21st century. In late 2013 he authored

Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale

, which critically examined the

U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA)

estimates of technically recoverable tight oil in the Monterey Shale, which the EIA claimed constituted two-thirds of U.S. tight oil; the EIA subsequently wrote down its resource estimate for the Monterey by 96%. In early 2014 he authored

BC LNG: A Reality Check

, which examined the issues surrounding the proposed massive scale up of shale gas production in British Columbia for LNG export. Hughes is president of Global Sustainability Research, a consultancy dedicated to research on energy and sustainability issues. He is also a board member of Physicians, Scientists & Engineers for Healthy Energy (PSE Healthy Energy) and is a Fellow of Post Carbon Institute. Hughes contributed to

Carbon Shift

, an anthology edited by Thomas Homer-Dixon on the twin issues of peak energy and climate change, and his work has been featured in

Nature

Canadian Business

Bloomberg, USA Today

, as well as other popular press, radio, and television.

About Post Carbon Institute

Post Carbon Institute’s mission is to lead the transition to a more resilient, equitable, and sustainable world by providing

individuals and communities with the resources needed to understand and respond to the interrelated economic, energy, and ecological crises of the 21st century.

Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank geoscientist David Dean for his insightful review and helpful comments from the perspective of a long-term industry insider. Asher Miller and Daniel Lerch provided in-depth reviews and many helpful comments and suggestions. Daniel Lerch also provided tireless editorial services. John Van Hoesen provided GIS services and prepared the maps for each play. The report also benefited from contributions and exchanges with many other colleagues on all aspects of energy

—

usually on a daily basis.

Drilling Deeper: A Reality Check on U.S. Government Forecasts for a Lasting Tight Oil & Shale Gas Boom

By J. David Hughes In association with Post Carbon Institute Copyright © 2014 by J. David Hughes. All rights reserved. Published October 2014. For reprint requests and other inquiries, contact: Post Carbon Institute, 613 Fourth St., Suite 208, Santa Rosa, California, 95404

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